And people don't have to all agree on the same things. People can get together to work towards cause X and then individually believe in mutually exclusive causes alpha, beta, gamma.
Queer people aren't causes, they're people. Imagine I worked on the Brave browser, and in my personal time maintained a website aimed at discouraging personal relationships with him. This would probably make me difficult to work with, despite my personal views not impacting the quality of my work. You might say these examples aren't one-to-one, and you're right. My example doesn't actually push any legislation forbidding him from having a relationship with a consenting person, and it costs a hell of a lot less than $1000.
I dunno. Public Defenders (and defense attorneys in general, but PDs don't get oodles of cash) have to work with some pretty reprehensible people sometimes.
I used to live in Bahrain while my wife worked in oil and gas, and a lot of her colleagues had some... pretty different... views from us but we still got along. Hell, the country itself has a pretty significant Sunni / Shia divide, with employees being one or the other and they managed to work with each other just fine.
I think in general people should be able to work with others that they have significant differences in opinion with. Now, in tech, we've been privileged to be in a seller's (of labor) market, where we can exercise some selectivity in where we work, so it's certainly a headwind in hiring if the CEO is undesirable (for whatever reason), but plenty of people still will for the cause or the pay or whatever. You just have to balance whether the hiring problems the CEO may or may not cause are worth whatever else they bring to the table.
That's exactly my point. They are able to do their job despite not believing in their clients, which for public defenders even means trying to let their clients go free, which is a fair bit further than is asked of a tech employee who disagrees with their CEO.
If you were on a hiring committee, and your otherwise-qualified-candidate had a political opinion you objected to in this way, perhaps with a similar donation, would you refuse to hire them?
If you were about to hire a candidate and then found out that they donate regularly to the “Arrest kbelder and deport them to El Salvador” fund, would you hire them?
Ive worked with Catholics and my views on sola scriptura and the authority of the Pope never came up once. Ive worked with Muslims, and it was never an issue. Ive worked with Hindus. Ive worked with Chinese, Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis, Nigerians, Brazilians, Kenyans, Russians, Ukrainians, Poles, Ghanans, Mexicans, and many other nationalities. I have been on many teams and in my companies with a combinatorial explosion of fundamentally incompatible beliefs.
So yes I do expect staff to work under a ceo that is opposed to gay marriage, an idea that I would bet globally has a less than 50% popular support.
Have you donated to anti-Muslim, anti-Christian etc. platforms in a public fashion while working with them? Because you would've found quite quickly how that changes the interactions.
I don't mind working with someone who has incompatible views with me, but I'd be quite unhappy working with someone who was actively working on undermining my rights.
That depends. I have donated to Religious missionary work publicly, that could be seen by an extremist of any other religion who sees this as a zero sum game as anti their religion. But I don't bring this up in work because that is uncouth and not what my job is about, and would expect the same from co-workers. Eich also didn't donate publicly, this was dug up and then foisted upon him. If someone were to dig through records they could find my donations and party affiliations, which is what they did to him. He was being professional, they were the ones that were taking his private views and forcing them into the public sphere.
I don't think childless couples (of any gender) should get any societal advantages yet I have no problem working with people that disagree. Why has everything to be black-or-white, left-or-right, with us or against us? That's not a productive way to think about others.
If there's nothing fundamental about marriage and it's just some weird coliving arrangement, then why ban it for only some groups in the first place? Nothing productive or even rational about it.
Why is the reaction seen as irrational or immature but not the action that triggered it?
> Why is the reaction seen as irrational or immature but not the action that triggered it?
The analogous (but with an opposite direction) action would be campaigning to make gay marriage legal. Nobody has a problem with people doing that. The reason people object to Eich's firing is because it is a very clear escalation in the culture war, not because they have strong opinions about gay marriage.
It has to be us vs against us because that's what law is all about -- outlawing certain actions.
It's one thing to believe as you do, it's quite another to push for legislation that would (in your example) deny childless couples societal advantages, whatever that actually means.
If you're not in favor of a-or-b arguments the answer is to allow a and b, eh?
For one, being childless is a choice (mostly, especially since adoption is a possibility). It's indeed OK to have different opinions for what how laws apply differently to people based on their choices. Being gay is not a choice, it is rather similar to race/ethnic background, and it's generally not OK to have laws that treat people differently based on something like that. I'm sure there are more nuances to add, but it seems to me that makes it quite a different situation.
I don't think everyone agrees that being gay is not a choice. There are no outward physical indicators of a person's sexual orientation. It's entirely behavorial and therefore plausibly under the conscious control of the person. Now, I would agree that a person doesn't choose which gender he is attracted to, but it not something than anyone else can see and immediately understand as an inborn characteristic.
Clearly being black, or hispanic, or asian, or white are physical characteristics. Far fewer people would argue that there is any element of choice in that.
In a liberal context, marriage means nothing except for being a symbol of a union between two people. But all rules, obligations and rights that make marriage a meaningful institution are rooted in religion, and are hence not always respected outside of religion.
You could argue that there are laws that only apply to married couples, and that THAT brings meaning to marriage. But:
Firstly, generally speaking, even the most important features of a marriage are not protected by law, most notably: fidelity. So the law is disjoint from what's traditionally considered to be obligations within marriage. That leaves the legal definition at the whims of contemporary polititians. Therefore, law cannot assign the word "marriage" any consistent meaning throughout time.
Secondly, to my limited knowledge, the line between a married couple and two people living together is increasingly getting blurred by laws that apply marriage legal obligations even to non-married couples if they have lived together for long enough. It suggests that law-makers do not consider a ceremony and a "marriage" announcement to be what should really activate these laws, but rather other factors. Although, they seem to acknowledge that an announcement of a marriage implies the factors needed to activate these laws. If that makes sense...
So marriage is inherently a religious institution that in a religious context comes with rules, obligations and rights. Hence why people who take religion seriously will find it offensive that somebody that completely disregards these rules calls themselves married.
The main benefits are tax free gifts between partners and filing jointly, both of which seem very reasonable and wouldn't be of value to single people.
The actual tax breaks most people think about are tied to dependents in your household, not marriage.
And how many Mozilla were fired while the CEO increased her pay to more than $7M per year?
How can staff members feel trust and been seen as equals when they get fired to make place for someone that is already earning 70x their wage. All while tanking the company to new lows.
That's right. To get a bit philosophical, it's interesting to see some people's justifications about how they are right to be intolerant in the ways they want to be, while still believing that they are free-thinking and tolerant. A lot of convoluted arguments are really about keeping one's self-image intact, justifying beliefs that are contradictory but which the person really wants to believe. I think that is a trap that is more dangerous for intelligent people.
For what it's worth, I support and supported gay marriage at the time, but don't think people should be forced out of their job for believing otherwise. Thoughts and words you disagree with should be met with alternative thoughts and words.
If you think adults marrying other adults and adults marrying children are in any way equivalent, as you imply, then yes your thinking is deeply disordered.
That's not what he said or implied, he's merely responding to your argument 'Donating any amount of money to prevent people you don't know from marrying each other'. I think you might have a justifiable argument here, but it's not clear at all to me what it is.
I cannot imagine the mental model you're working with if my observation is not crystal clear despite omitting the word "adults" in my initial post. Both your and Y_Y's responses read as bad faith to me, but it could be extraordinary ignorance.
In either case I have no idea how to make it clearer for you. Good luck.
Yes people can and should have differences of opinion but a line is crossed when you openly campaign to eliminate the differences of opinion by curtailing the freedoms of the people you disagree with.
So pretty much any law that is opposed by someone. Shop lifting shouldn't be legal because there are people who like free stuff. Curltailing the freedom of people who want free stuff improves society by protecting people's property.
Just because people can get together to work towards a cause while believing in mutually exclusive ideals, that doesn't mean it's the most effective way for people to work together. The ability to do a thing and the ability to do a thing well is a big difference.
Wikipedia also says he's Catholic. From what I understand, the Church's positions on such things have evolved at least somewhat since then. His views could have totally changed or evolved since then (can't find anything publicly myself).
The point was not "whatever the majority wants is therefore good". The point is that if you were to apply the "you get fired from your job for this" standard evenly, the majority of the country would've had to get fired from their jobs. That is a pretty unreasonable standard to apply, imo.
Also, come on man. It's in really bad taste to compare stuff to the Holocaust. Nobody was being murdered here, it's not remotely the same.
> The point is that if you were to apply the "you get fired from your job for this" standard evenly, the majority of the country would've had to get fired from their jobs.
Standards should be higher for folks with more power. The cashier at the grocery store expressing bigoted beliefs won't harm me much; my boss doing it is more serious.
> Nobody was being murdered here, it's not remotely the same.
I assure you, homophobia has its murder victims. (Including a good number of Holocaust ones.)
Obama opposed gay marriage as well. As did many prominent politicians, left and right.
The swing from opposing it to supporting it was a huge cultural shift, and I'm not sure I've seen anything like that happen so quickly, except maybe during a time of war. It went from being opposed by a strong majority to supported by a strong majority in... maybe 5-8 years? It was pretty impressive, and I think it's a sign that the marketplace of ideas can still function.
It helps a lot that it's really a harmless thing. It's giving people more freedom, not taking any away from anyone, and so as soon as it became clear that it wasn't causing a problem, everybody shrugged and went 'ok'.
I wonder if in hindsight he's embarrassed to have been on the wrong side of history. Imagine spending your time and money fighting inevitable social change. Fighting gay marriage is just a time-shifted fight against women voting or interracial marriage.
No part of this is true, fwiw. His salary at Mozilla was not high and he was a strong advocate of keeping executive compensation low (and as supporting evidence, that compensation shot up soon after he left). He may have made more from Brave, but that was obviously well after the donation. He also never backed down from his donation and the directly implied opposition to gay marriage, only stating that it comes from his personal beliefs and that he refused to discuss those openly. (I disagree with his position on gay marriage, or at least the position that I can infer from his donation, but I agree with his right and decision to keep it a private matter.)
I had... complex but mostly positive feelings about Eich in the time I worked for him (indirectly), but I can state unequivocally that he's not someone who would bend his principles as a result of getting cornered at a party.
What I meant is he is a guy who have evolved in the center of the tech revolution in the 90s and 2000s. If he is not horribly bad with money he probably made a lot at least in various investments.
So I would guess $1000 was almost nothing to him. He is not really supporting anything by donating $1000.
I listened to him in a interview once, he really feel like a nice guy.
But then he went on to make Yet Another Chromium Fork, so it doesn't seem like he was particularly attached to Gecko or what it stands for in the browser engine market anyway. What's to say that Mozilla wouldn't have given up the fight and pivoted to Chromium, like Opera and Edge did, if he was still in charge?
They originally started with Gecko and switched to Chromium.
"There were a ton of issues using Gecko, starting with (at the time) no CDM (HTML5 DRM module) so no HD video content from the major studios, Netflix, Amazon, etc. -- Firefox had an Adobe deal but it was not transferable or transferred to any other browser that used Gecko -- and running the gamut of paper-cuts to major web incompatibilities especially on mobile, vs. WebKit-lineage engines such as Chromium/Blink."
And he went in on integrating trendy things like Ads that pay crypto and AI integrated into the browser, so it's not like there wouldn't be AI if he were in charge.
Is there a name for the fallacy where you assume the path not taken is much better? Because I agree, this is that. Mozilla’s challenges are foundational, Eich as CEO wouldn’t have made a dramatic difference in outcomes.
It isn't really Yet Another Chromium Fork, they're the company that does most anti-ad research / development. Stuff like Project Sugarcoat[0]. Their adblocking engine is also native and does not depend on Manifest V2, making it work better than any blocker that has to switch to MV3 when Google removes MV2.
And they're the only browser that has a functional alternative for webpage-based ads. Active right now. And you can instead fund pages / creators by buying BAT directly instead of watching private ads.
On top of that, Brave's defaults are much more privacy-protecting than Firefox's, you only get good protection on Firefox if you harden the config by mucking about in about:config.
People love to hate on Brave because they made some weird grey area missteps in the past (injecting affiliate links on crypto sites and pre-installing a deactivated VPN) and they're involved in crypto. But its not like Firefox hasn't made some serious missteps in the past, but somehow Firefox stans have decided to forget about the surreptitiously installed extension for Mr. Robot injected ads (yes really).
If people could be objective for a second they'd see that Brave took over the torch from Firefox and has been carrying it for a long time now.
Not to have him cancelled in the first place. No need to pretend that doing something under the mob pressure is the same as doing something entirely willingly
I do, that is why I noticed this in the first place haha, but maybe my filter selection (for EU) didn't catch whats put up here.. guess I got a glimpse of how bad the experience must be on most sites these days without ublock
If A and B have different volatilities, it's rather counter-intuitive to allocate proportionally rather than just all to the one with the lower volatility... :-/
I agree, and I had to think about it for a second, but now it seems obvious. It works for the exact same reason that averaging multiple independent measurements can give a more accurate result. The key fact is that the different random variables are all independent, so it's unlikely that the various deviations from the means will line up in the same direction.
Yes, I think that's part of the point of the post. One intuition is that allocating only a little bit to a highly volatile asset creates a not-very volatile asset. Investing a little bit is the same as scaling the asset down until it's not very volatile.
There is an eye exercise for short-sighted people that involves painting a dot on a window glass and then repeatedly changing focus between the dot and the scenery behind the window.
Basically, focus on the dot for 10 seconds, then on the back. Rinse and repeat several times, 2-3 times a day.
I was given this exercise over 30 years ago and its goal was to stop the worsening of the eyesight. Fwiw, in my case, it seemed to have worked.
The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are.
PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.
The economy is a meme and all the small fish praise the stock market meanwhile the big fish are fully prepared to run you all over and they will. They won't stop until it's all theirs.
It being a certainty is wrong, but there is a huge differential between the growth of total market value and the lackluster fundamentals, GDP growth, and jobs numbers.
To put another way, there's a lot of "potential energy" being built up in the markets right now. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll pop like a bubble - but there's really no precedent for them to continue rising.
It could be true that the market can continue to grow well past 15% above fundamentals for the indefinite future. But the more it goes up, the more improbable it becomes.
If you've flipped heads three times in a row, you're right that I would look foolish saying the next one can't be heads. But at the same time you cannot keep flipping heads forever.
true on all accounts but comment like OP made is ridiculous. to say “for sure XYZ will happen to the market by this date” is childish/funny/insane. to say “eventually” there will be a correction is similar cause of course there will be. so all this talk about bubble and other shit is just nonsense all around
Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions.
General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.
Palantir has a market cap of $400B+ and Nvidia is $5T. This short translates to 0.225% and 0.00374%. This mostly translates to a thesis that the stocks would “probably” go down a bit than a bet that predicts recession.
It seems like the economy is on a “K” shaped flywheel. How much worse can the economy get for the regular worker before the systems just pops? We’ve put so much speculation into an AI/tech salvation that seems premature, especially when you look at ROI vs depreciation timelines.
I’m not sure what timeline to place on that but there has to be a floor for how bad it can get for the regular man.
Shit is just expensive. Young people can’t buy houses, good jobs are drying up, and inflation isn’t stopping.
I'm sure the Fed chart is accurately measuring what it's measuring but when I was a kid in Southern California it was normal to buy a house and raise kids on a single teacher or construction worker salary. That has become nearly impossible over the past couple decades. Many others have seen similar changes in their own areas and I don't think they're being crazy when they say it has gotten much harder to finance a normal household on a normal salary.
I don't know what the disconnect is with that chart and people's observations. Is that chart controlling for number of incomes and hours worked? If a household income increases by 20% because the members are working a combined 80% more hours that's not great. Category differences in inflation might be another factor. Sure TVs and other niceties are a lot cheaper, but essentials like housing and medical care eat up a huge portion of most budgets.
Slightly overestimates. Alternatives like Truflation show it lower.
You may be thinking of Shadowstats, which is run by a crank who just takes the official numbers and adds a number he made up to them.
I don't know why cranks always think inflation is secretly higher. Deflation is a lot worse than inflation, so if you're a doomer, believing in deflation would be more effective.
The idea that CPI sucks is far from a conspiracy theory... not sure why you're trying to color it like that.
The problem is that the error integrates over time, which IMHO is why graphs like that seem to suggest our standard of living is higher than ever... when a conversation with anyone at a local bus stop will tell you the exact opposite.
It's almost impossible for the standard of living to not be higher than ever. That becomes true if you assign any value at all to new medical discoveries. Like, people have been cured of type 1 diabetes in the last year.
That chart for sure includes higher portion of double income households (because now more women are in the workforce than in the 80s). This reconciles your view with the Fed graph
Households can have more than two incomes - roommates, children who work, grandparents etc.
In practice, household sizes have gone down over time as more people live on their own, which means the income graph is lower than it otherwise would be.
As for dual income families, they're mostly a good thing that happens when women can afford to pay for childcare. That is, that book The Two-Income Trap was mostly false. This is part of the topic of Claudia Goldin's economics Nobel, the other part being that the gender wage gap is caused by motherhood interrupting women's careers.
>> Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions
Historically I think the reality has been the opposite of that, economists have been extremely reluctant to make predictions of an oncoming recession. This was certainly true during the great recession when economists were denying that a recession was coming even after one had actually started. That is to say, economists could not even predict the present.
There are a few economists who are predictably gloomy ("permabears", I suppose Nouriel Roubini would qualify) and I guess now there is political pressure to predict a recession anytime the other political party is in power, but from my perspective, if mainstream economists are predicting a recession, that likely means the recession is almost over.
Intervening as if there were a recession inminent when it is not also has harms (the exact same as the harms when recession interventions are maintained too long or employed too intensely, in terms of inflation, etc.), so I wouldn't agree that your central bank is bad if you happened to have guessed right once, but only if you have a demonstrably accurate objective method.
It actually appears that the alternative harms aren't as bad; that is, recessions aren't caused by prior expansions and we don't get one by "deserving" them.
Is there a way to predict when central banks aren't "good enough" then?
Point is, for a 100% positive case rate, I have to tolerate a 22% false positive rate. What exactly is the complaint here? Was this line of logic meant to make people who make these predictions look stupid or foolish somehow? To me, it mostly fails to.
He has no idea, I'm guessing it's wishful thinking, likely from a political partisan, or someone with a lot of dry powder trying to enter the stock market after a correction.
Political volatility and the dirty nasty hustle on the Trump/republicans' part that will precede the mid-terms. Combined with the general state of bizarre market bonanza of the past few months. It's a powder keg just waiting for a match.
A buddy of mine and I have been watching as investors he follows have been saying the market is going to have a major correction in the next 3-6 months for 3 years now. It definitely seems like the market is due for a major correction, but it sure hasn't happened despite repeated projections. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Will it be another "correction" where it pulls back ~10% before going up another 15%?
The powers that be have too much invested in the market continuing to move up, you are basically betting that Trump, a bunch of billionaires and the FED are going to let the market crash to curb inflation and income inequality. That feels like a bad bet to me.
I meant that the Fed, Treasury, etc. have powerful levels they can pull to head off initial effects.
What can overwhelm them is if those effects cascade and compound into second-order effects, typically multiplied in magnitude.
That's essentially what the fuck-up in 2008 was. The government let Bear Stearns fail because it could handle the effects. What it couldn't handle (or at least, was barely able to) were the second order effects of credit tightening, mortgage derivative repricing, counterparty trust loss, etc. etc.
The government could absolutely prop up the AI bubble, possibly indefinitely. What it can't do is cover second order fallout, if it turns out a lot of risky money was somehow tied into the bubble.
The stock market isn't that important (though Trump does care about it). It's the bond market that everyone pays attention to when it stops working.
In a sense, stock market crashes are good for young people because you can buy stocks cheaper. In practice this isn't true because too many people are in debt and you get a balance sheet recession.
The rule of thumb is that if there's a mention of or a link to the Yanko Design website, you know it's a pipe-dream design concept detached from reality.
Here it features the review by YD, so, yeah, that's not just not built, it's not buildable in principle :)
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